NGX Market Recap – Monday, November 17, 2025

The Nigerian Equities Market kicked off the week with a broad pullback, as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) slid by -1.26% to close at 147,013.59. Despite the day's downturn, the market sustains a robust Year-to-Date (YTD) return of +40.69%. Turnover fell sharply by -88.37% to just 2.30 billion Naira, though the breadth favored advancers (33) over decliners (28), yielding a market breadth of 1.18x. Trading volumes collapsed to 90.92M from 649.33M in the prior session, raising concerns about underlying conviction. However, as we dissect this mixed environment, sector and momentum plays continue to offer distinct signals.

Previous Week's Market Snapshot

Last week set an exuberant pace, with risk appetite evident in the outperformance of select insurance and small-cap stocks. However, by Friday, profit-taking and rotation trimmed advances, setting the stage for today's corrective action. Notably, high-momentum ETFs and YTD outperformers continued to attract attention, hinting at sustained underlying flows despite bouts of market indigestion.

Key Trends and Breadth

• Advancers vs Decliners: 33 advancers versus 28 decliners indicates mild bullish undertones, despite the index drop.
• Rising/Declining Volumes: Volume increased for 63 stocks and declined for 77, showing a more defensive/hesitant trading pattern.
• Liquidity Caveat: Turnover down sharply; this can signal early-stage reversal or merely a breather after a high-velocity rally.
• Unusual Volume: TANTALIZER (+875%), ARADEL (+667%), ASOSAVINGS (+156%) — aggressive accumulation in select smaller names.

Notable Gainers & Losers

• Top Gainer: STANBICETF30 +10.00% (RSI 77.7 – strong overbought); ETF price momentum unrelenting; 15DMA above 50DMA confirms sustained uptrend. Caution: Profit-taking likely soon as RSI is well above 70.
• Other Gainers:
  • NCR +9.96% (RSI 96.95, extremely overbought), TANTALIZER +9.81% (RSI 43.3, bullish 15DMA cross), PRESTIGE +9.70% (RSI 36.6, improved but not yet overbought).
• Top Loser: ENAMELWA -10.00% (RSI 71.0, elevated — aggressive sell-off after overbought).
• DANGCEM -10.00% (RSI 40.5, downward MACD crossover — YTD laggard and near a technical breakdown).
• Other Losers of Note: VETINDETF -6.67%, AIICO -4.11% (insurance seeing bifurcated moves).

Year-To-Date: Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Momentum & Technical Insights

• Overbought warning: NCR (RSI 96.9), STANBICETF30 (RSI 77.7) – both riding a hot streak, but technicals suggest profit-booking could be prudent soon. MACD histograms remain strongly positive, confirming the upthrust for now.
• Bearish signals: ACCESSCORP, OANDO, and NGXMERIGRW show prices crossing below their 15DMA, and ACCESSCORP exhibits a negative MACD histogram—suggesting increased downward risk.
• Bullish crossovers: TANTALIZER, REGALINS, DAARCOMM, LASACO, NPFMCRFBK and WEMABANK all moved above 15DMA, indicating newfound buying interest or revival.
• Volume Surge: TANTALIZER leads with an +875% volume spike, which – along with price gains – marks a technical breakout.
• ETF Focus: Both STANBICETF30 and VETINDETF showed extreme moves in opposite directions – a sign of inter-sector rotation and perhaps speculative flows in structured products.

Contrarian Signals

• ENAMELWA: Despite RSI at 71.0 (overbought), the stock plunged -10%. This rare mix of overbought readings with outsized drops could signal a "blow-off top” and potential reversal.
• DANGCEM: Both a YTD laggard and one of today's biggest losers; however, its RSI of 40.5 is not yet oversold. A sharp bounce is less likely unless fundamental catalysts emerge.
• TANTALIZER: Substantial volume breakout (875%), price above 15DMA, but only moderate RSI (43.3). Indicates the move may have "legs” left before exhaustion.
• PRESTIGE: Just moved off oversold RSI below 30, now at 36.6 with bullish daily price action (+9.7%), suggesting recovery could continue.

Sector Heatmaps & Institutional/Retail Activity

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Stock Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share (717.5M of 2.3B), signaling concentrated big-player interest.
• ARADEL: Despite negative price action, it grabbed 72.9% of total institutional traded value (21.5B of 2.3B). Possible strategic accumulation.
• GTCO: Both retail and institutional favorites, suggesting consensus on its liquidity and risk.

High Dividend Yields & Momentum Crossover?

• Currently, no high-yielding stock in either the bullish or bearish tables—suggests yield-chasing remains dormant in momentum plays. NPFMCRFBK (8%) is a defensive outlier, with a bullish 15DMA cross, which may attract risk-averse buyers if market volatility lingers.

Trader Recommendations & Watch Points

• Monitor Overextensions: Consider trailing stops on NCR and STANBICETF30 as both are technically overbought on RSI and have stretched well beyond 15/50DMA levels.
• Accumulate Defensives: Look to increase weight in stocks like NPFMCRFBK (defensive yield, low beta, bullish cross) on any market-wide weakness.
• Volume Breakout Plays: TANTALIZER, ARADEL, and ASOSAVINGS are in play for momentum and short-term breakouts on strong volume surges—volume precedes price!
• ETF Arbitrage: Watch for mean-reversion in sector ETFs (STANBICETF30 overbought, VETINDETF oversold); pair trading may yield opportunity.
• Caution: Avoid chasing names that are approaching exhaustion (RSI > 90), e.g., NCR.

Market Activity Insights (Retail vs. Institutional)

• Institutional dominance: Only 36.2% of trades by count, but a commanding 64.94% by volume and a whopping 94.35% of value. Big blocks dominate. Watch for future crowding/unwinding risk.
• Top Institutional Trades: ARADEL (72.69% of institutional value), GTCO (6.09%), ZENITHBANK (2.44%), UACN (0.97%), ACCESSCORP (0.39%). — Heavyweight stocks continue to draw large institutional flows. ARADEL's outsized volume, despite price retreat, could be a "smart money” accumulation ahead of a potential reversal.
• Retail activity: Consistently focused on liquidity favorites MTNN, GTCO, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, and DANGCEM. – In many cases, these overlap with institutional favorites, suggesting both ends of the market remain tethered to mega-liquidity names.
• Correlation observation: High institutional flows seem to coincide with high volume/unusual volume alerts (e.g., ARADEL). Take note of liquidity "pockets” as they can foreshadow volatility events.
• Diversity in retail names: Suggests some speculative or momentum trading chasing volume spikes (e.g. TANTALIZER), while institutional flows are clustered in big cap/staples.

Currency Market Brief

• Naira appreciated by +0.07% to 1,441/USD; minor but stabilizing move. This could underpin some risk-on sentiment ahead—particularly if sustained.

Hidden Insights & Key Takeaways

• Exhaustion Top? Multiple YTD gainers and daily top gainers registering extreme RSI readings (>70, with NCR nearly 97). This historically signals imminent profit booking.
• Volume vs. Price Divergence: Unusual volume in ARADEL and TANTALIZER, but opposite price reactions. Smart money likely accumulating ARADEL into weakness, while retail is piling into TANTALIZER on new highs — consider rotation.
• Sector bifurcation: Insurance names split between bull and bear camps — signaling rotating leadership and the importance of stock picking over blanket exposure.
• Liquidity Shrink: Today's -88.37% drop in turnover could exaggerate moves in thinly traded names. Be wary of overreaction both ways in low turnover regimes.
• Beta-Yield Pockets: Defensive yield plays (e.g., NPFMCRFBK) are emerging as volatility hedges; monitor for possible sector rotation if index volatility persists.